By Cory
Franklin
If you grew
up as a sports fan and gravitated toward others of common disposition, then at
some point you found yourself on the playground, in your living room or college
dorm, and engrossed in discussions and quite possibly arguments about your sports
heroes, their accomplishments, and their teams. Should you fit this profile, then
Sheldon Hirsch’s new book Hot Hands,Draft Hype & DiMaggio’s Streak: Debunking America’s Favorite Sports Myths
is required
reading.
The author
provides fascinating and typically unconventional takes on some of the most
heated debates in baseball, football, and basketball, while occasionally
tossing in intriguing digressions. The book is meticulously researched, and the
author’s background as a physician well acquainted with two of sports most important
facets—its science and its statistics—makes this an essential part of any
sports library.
The first,
and most impressive, portion of the book deals with baseball, which is
obviously the author’s first love. He begins provocatively, with an essay
diminishing Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak in 1941, an accomplishment
many observers believe to be the most impressive single season record in
baseball history.
Without
resorting to revisionist history, Hirsch’s criticism centers on the insight
that the consecutive aspect of the streak was a statistical idiosyncrasy that
did not benefit the Yankees, and that others have performed as well or better
in their sports in similar situations. This is certainly a contrarian viewpoint,
and has merit. He counters the opinion
of others, including the respected Harvard paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould, who
also wrote about sports as an avocation. Gould waxed eloquent on DiMaggio’s
streak, calling it, “the finest of legitimate legends
because it embodies the essence of the battle that truly defines our lives.” Hirsch
graciously acknowledges Gould, but nevertheless dismisses this panegyric as
“schmaltz.” If only Gould had not
died prematurely, a roundtable debate on the DiMaggio hitting streak between
the two would surely have been something to attend.
The book
moves into other baseball trigger areas –whether today’s players are better
than those of the past, how we should evaluate players who used
performance-enhancing drugs, and the ne
plus ultra of all Baby Boomer baseball debates, “who was better Mickey
Mantle or Willie Mays?” No spoilers here; suffice to say Hirsch’s is a nuanced
take on this unresolvable argument.
While this
and some of his other baseball subjects are obviously geared toward a Baby
Boomer audience, he does not shortchange younger fans. Included are sections on
contemporary debates such as who deserved the 2012 and 2013 Most Valuable
Player Awards— the superb all-around player Mike Trout, or the great hitter but
one-dimensional player Miguel Cabrera (Cabrera won both times). Along the way,
Hirsch examines pitchers’ arm injuries and the over-application of the pitch
count today. It is hard to fault his assertion that the Washington Nationals
ill-fated decision several years ago to withhold Stephen Strasberg from the playoffs
based on his projected pitch counts was, in Hirsch’s words, “absurd.”
The best
discussion in the book is about the statistical revolution that has completely
transformed baseball in the past two decades. A baseball game is a series of
thousands of events and decisions, and the advent of the computer and high-tech
video systems has made it possible to catalogue, compile, and evaluate those
events. This has generated constantly evolving statistics and new ways of
analyzing players and strategy. Administrative power in the upper strata of
baseball has changed hands from grizzled old-line baseball veterans to Ivy
League analysts, economists, and “quants.” Most baseball front offices are now
filled with people who never played professionally.
Hirsch uses
his experience with statistics to explain to the everyday fan some of the most
commonly used new terms. Unlike many of today’s journalists, he is neither a
total skeptic nor a doctrinaire believer; he neatly lays out the strengths and
weaknesses of such arcane concepts as WAR, UZR, and DIPS.
Coincidentally,
medicine faces a not dissimilar revolution with its attempts to measure
performance. As a physician, Hirsch is undoubtedly aware that just as a
baseball player is more than a statistic, so is a patient. The ultimate purpose
of statistics is to describe reality, but while they may be able to provide a
good approximation, their description will necessarily be incomplete. As the
saying goes, “the map is not the territory,” and Hirsch explains why this
pertains to statistics and baseball. For
the casual reader looking for an initial section to catch his or her attention,
I must recommend the section on baseball analytics.
The book moves
into basketball, and Hirsch’s knowledge of the sport is no less impressive,
even if his topics are not quite as focused. There is less attention to
historical debates—surprisingly no Russell/Chamberlain colloquy, the basketball
equivalent to Mantle/Mays. Instead, he examines, among other things, various
strategies (e.g. three-point shooting) and the popular topic of whether the
“hot-hand”— the streak shooter—actually exists.
The
hot-hand has been examined in depth by many in and out of the sports realm,
most notably by the late mathematical psychologist Amos Tversky and his Nobel-winning
colleague, Daniel Kahneman. Their conclusion, and the conclusion of most
others, is that the hot-hand does not exist, and is simply an imagined
phenomenon. I have never been totally convinced that this is true, not because
the hot-hand is so obvious, rather because it may be subtle and hard to confirm.
It is so ingrained in the thinking of virtually everyone who has played the game
that one must discard the notion that it does not exist with caution; ignore
local knowledge at your peril. With additional explanation, Hirsch adopts this
cautious stance.
One
basketball debate that Hirsch comes down strongly on concerns the “one and done
rule.” He is a firm believer that young basketball players should have the
option to turn pro at any time and any impediments, legal or social, to letting
them do so are unwarranted and unfair. This is another unresolvable debate, with
evidence supporting both sides.
Hirsch
details the careers of a couple of controversial superstars, LeBron James and
Wilt Chamberlain. There is little middle ground on either of these two players;
each is either a hero or villain, overrated or wrongly maligned, depending on whom
you talk to. Hirsch presents a balanced and intelligent assessment of both,
coming down on the side, rightly so, that both were in the pantheon of the
greatest to ever play. His mention of Steph Curry in the same vein as Oscar
Robertson and Michael Jordan, however, might be a little gratuitous, a point he
concedes, albeit reluctantly.
In a
fascinating (but brief) digression in the basketball section, Hirsch discusses
Ernie Vandeweghe, a college All-American, an NBA player with the Knicks in the
1950’s, a physician, and the father and grandfather of eight stars with
world-class ability in six different sports. Most amazingly, Vandeweghe
attended medical school at the same time he played in the NBA. The physician
Hirsch is duly impressed, as am I (although Hirsch neglects to mention in
addition to everything else, Vandeweghe also married a Miss America!). Among
all the debates in the book, there is no debate that Ernie Vandeweghe was one
of the most amazing individuals in sports—something that few before Hirsch
have acknowledged.
The final
section on football is unfortunately shorter, although it includes an excellent
piece on head trauma in the NFL and the difficulty in making the diagnosis of
chronic traumatic encephalopathy. I hope that Dr. Hirsch revisits this subject
in his future writings because his insight is extremely valuable.
While
personal disagreement is not generally the domain of the critic, if I had to
take issue with any of his ideas, it is the rule changes he proposes in
football. Hirsch advises downplaying kicking by eliminating extra points and decreasing
the relative value of field goals (by awarding touchdowns with seven points). My
bias is that kicking is an essential element of the game, and a skilled kicker
in a pressure situation adds considerably to the excitement of the game.
Likewise, he
criticizes the “catch/no catch” rule pertaining to receivers, but again, I disagree.
Currently, a receiver must hold onto the ball and then make a “football move”
to qualify as a catch. Hirsch dislikes the “football move” aspect and would
like to do away with it. But I believe that putting greater onus on the
receiver to hold the ball longer helps referees make difficult distinctions
between dropped balls and catches with subsequent fumbles. However you believe,
his discussion of football rule changes makes for interesting reading.
The book
ends with the author’s profile of the legendary Muhammad Ali. Ali was
inarguably one of the most important sports figures of the 20th
Century, and after his death most descriptions of his life took on a
hagiographic tone. The fact remains that Ali was a controversial figure and not
always the saint he is portrayed as, especially in his dealings with his
nemesis, Joe Frazier. The Ali epilogue might seem slightly out of place, but it
is nonetheless accurate and a necessary historical counterbalance to some of
the idealized portraits of the inarguably great boxer.
There are
several unstated but important themes in this book. The most significant is the
inevitable tension between individual and team performance. Any book that
analyzes athletes in team sports must consider the conflict there. This book is
no different, and Hirsch does his best to balance it. Did DiMaggio’s consecutive
hitting streak really help his team? Should Russell Westbrook play more
team-oriented basketball? Do high school players who move to the NBA learn to
play team basketball? Ultimately, some fans prefer going to a game and watching
an individual performance, others a competitive game. Are you happy if Michael
Jordan scores 60 points but the Bulls lose or would you rather see a game go
into overtime with no one player standing out? Hirsch acknowledges and respects
that sports in general have become more competitive, but one gets the sense that
deep in his heart he yearns for the dazzling individual performance.
There is
also the matter of prediction. Fans read, watch, and argue wanting to know who
will win an upcoming game (gambling playing no small part in this). Hirsch
understands and explains why, at its most elemental level, successful
prediction is impossible with any degree of certainty, a fact borne out by two
singular events that occurred after his book went to press. It’s too bad we
could not get his take on the Cubs winning the 2016 World Series after being
down three games to one, and the Patriots coming from 25 points down to win the
2016 Super Bowl. I await reading about these anomalies in his next book. He is
certain to have a unique perspective.
I also hope
that in his next book he comments on how some of the topics he has discussed
subsequently unfolded. For example, his observations on Phil Jackson not
realizing success with the Knicks look prescient right now, for exactly the
reasons he states. The jury is still out on Allonzo Trier, the fabulous young
basketball player he describes who devoted his youth to playing the game. Trier
has had some unanticipated troubles in his time at the University of Arizona,
and his future is still anybody’s guess. Finally, Hirsch might have a different
take today on Cubs manager Joe Madden’s “quirky tinkering” given some of the
bizarre decisions Madden made in the 2016 Playoffs and World Series that nearly
spelled disaster.
In short, Hot Hands, Draft Hype & DiMaggio’sStreak: Debunking America’s Favorite Sports Myths is a wonderful, well-written
book that you can pick up and start reading on almost any page. And, as a bonus
for the erudite sports fan, Hirsch quotes, among others and to good use, Tversky
and Kahneman, Tom Wolfe, Kurt Vonnegut, A.E. Housman, Robert Browning, and
Alexander Pope. Who imagined, for example, a link between Vonnegut and LeBron
James?
Hirsch’s
book is meant to enlighten and entertain rather than simply settle barroom
sports debates. However, in that respect you will be smarter after reading it
and certainly better prepared for those debates when and if they arise. Whether on your night table, your coffee table,
or your bookshelf, keep this great book handy for reading and reference.
Cory
Franklin is an Editorial Board contributor to the Chicago Tribune and the
author of Chicago Flashbulbs and Cook County ICU: 30 Years of Unforgettable
Patients and Odd Cases